Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. STRL is up 176.1% year to date, a move that dwarfs the Zacks sub-industry’s 37.9% growth, the Zacks Construction sector’s 12.2% rise and the S&P 500’s 11.1% advance over the same period.
The key question is whether the fundamentals have improved enough to justify chasing the run. Sterling’s operational profile has shifted as mission-critical E-Infrastructure scales and the CEC Facilities Group acquisition adds electrical capacity, backlog and revenues.
STRL Has Rallied Hard, but Fundamentals Also Re-Rated
The stock’s surge is not just a multiple story. Sterling is benefiting from multi-year visibility as mission-critical activity in data centers, advanced manufacturing and semiconductors drives a deeper, higher-margin backlog. In the first quarter of 2026, signed backlog rose 78% year over year to $3.8 billion and combined backlog increased 131% to $5.2 billion, with total visibility approaching nearly $6.5 billion after adding future phases.
The company also broadened its E-Infrastructure platform through the Sep. 1, 2025, acquisition of CEC Facilities Group. In the first quarter of 2026, CEC contributed $156.1 million of revenues, helping power outsized E-Infrastructure growth and reinforcing Sterling’s ability to take on larger, time-sensitive work.
Sterling’s Raised 2026 Guidance is the Core Bull Case
Management’s revised 2026 outlook is the clearest signal that momentum is not limited to one quarter. Sterling raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.70-$3.80 billion, up from its prior $3.05-$3.20 billion range. Adjusted earnings per share are now expected at $18.40-$19.05, up from the prior outlook of $13.45-$14.05. Management also raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to $843-$873 million from $626-$659 million.
The raise is tied to strong award activity and improved visibility from backlog and awards. Sterling also cited a growing pipeline of high-probability future phases that exceeds $1.3 billion, supporting line of sight as signed work converts.
STRL’s Valuation Now Assumes Continued Execution
The valuation case is straightforward: investors are paying up for a company that is executing at a higher level, but the bar is now higher. Sterling trades at 42.86 times forward 12-month earnings compared with 31.99 times for the Zacks sub-industry, 21.47 times for the Zacks sector, and 22.26 times for the S&P 500 Index. Moreover, the price target framework implies further upside but also embeds expectations. The $973 target reflects 49.34 times forward 12-month earnings.
At these multiples, investors must believe Sterling can sustain a higher-margin mix, maintain delivery discipline and keep converting mission-critical demand into revenue. Backlog quality supports that view, with more than 90% of signed E-Infrastructure backlog tied to mission-critical work, and management expecting data center demand to continue for the foreseeable future.
Sterling’s Short-Term Signal and Style Profile
For near-term investors, Sterling currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Style Scores help explain the tradeoff. Sterling currently has a Growth Score of B and a Momentum Score of C, alongside a Value Score of F and a VGM Score of D. This combination typically fits a stock where growth expectations are strong, but value characteristics are weaker at the current price. In practical terms, the market is rewarding the growth narrative and execution, while leaving less room for disappointment if project timing or margins wobble.
STRL’s Balance Sheet Adds Flexibility, Not Leverage Risk
Sterling’s liquidity profile supports continued investment without leaning on leverage. As of the first quarter of 2026, the company held $512 million of cash against $287 million of debt, with an undrawn $150 million revolver, leaving it in a net cash posture.
That flexibility matters because Sterling is scaling capacity and integrating CEC. Management expects continued strength in operating cash flow in 2026 while keeping capital expenditures at $100-$110 million. The balance sheet also supports capital returns. Sterling has $362 million of share repurchase authorization remaining and bought back $12.3 million of stock in the first quarter at an average price of $305.14 per share.
Sterling’s Key Risks to Watch Before Chasing the Run
The biggest risk is mixed drag from residential exposure. Sterling expects affordability headwinds in residential to persist through 2026, with Building Solutions revenues modestly down for the year and margins in the low double digits. In the first quarter of 2026, Building Solutions’ operating margin declined to 6.5% from 13.4%.
A second risk is near-term dilution and execution strain as electrical capacity ramps. Tight labor availability can constrain the pace of integrated site and electrical delivery, creating quarterly variability and pressure on schedule adherence as larger integrated awards increase complexity.
Finally, project timing and seasonality can swing results. First and fourth quarters are historically Sterling’s lowest, and the growing mix of large, multi-year projects means phasing and start dates can materially influence quarterly burn. Delays in data center or semiconductor schedules would have an outsized impact on near-term revenue recognition and margins.
For investors looking across the broader infrastructure space, EMCOR Group, Inc. EME, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and AECOM $ACM ACM, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), offer useful reference points for how the market is pricing execution-driven growth.
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