Archer Aviation ACHR is still in the pre-revenue phase where execution milestones matter more than near-term sales. That framing has not stopped the stock from selling off. Shares fell 26.3% over the past three months and 33.2% over the past year, far worse than the cited aerospace sub-industry and sector comparisons.
Archer’s Share Move Frames the Setup
ACHR’s pullback stands out versus the reference group. Over three months, the Zacks sub-industry and the Zacks Aerospace sector declined 3.1% and 5.6%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.6%. Over one year, the sub-industry and sector gained 23.5% and 24.8%, while the S&P 500 advanced 33.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ACHR’s Liquidity Offers Near-Term Runway
Archer ended fourth-quarter 2025 with nearly $2.0 billion of total liquidity, including $1,964.7 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. On the balance sheet, current assets totaled $2,076.1 million and total stockholders’ equity was $2,202.8 million. Total debt was modest at $80.3 million combined current and long-term.
The company expects investment to step up to support certification work, manufacturing scale, and initial market deployments. The intent is to fund progress through the next set of execution gates rather than rely on limited revenue contribution today.
Archer’s Loss Profile Is the Key Trade-Off
The financial backdrop remains heavy. Archer posted a net loss of $618.2 million in 2025 and had nearly $2.3 billion in cumulative losses since inception at year-end 2025. That reality explains why the market is sensitive to any slippage in the path to operations.
Management guided first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $160 million to $180 million and described the step-up as deliberate and tied to execution milestones. The company is signaling that the near-term priority is moving programs forward, even if losses widen.
Operating cash outflow was $432.9 million in 2025, reflecting higher program activity while revenues remained limited. Until certification and early operations arrive, burn and liquidity trajectory are likely to stay central to the
valuation debate.
ACHR Revenue Is Early and Non-Core So Far
Revenue is still essentially a placeholder. Archer reported $0.3 million in revenue in 2025, compared with $0 in 2024. The increase came from initial lease income tied to hangar space at Hawthorne Municipal Airport, recognized over monthly lease periods.
Management’s commercialization framing is different. The company expects significant commercial revenues to follow completion of aircraft certification and the ramp-up of its production and services model. For investors, that timing matters because lease income is not the core thesis. Certification progress and the transition from testing to early deployments are.
Archer’s Valuation Multiples Reflect Uncertainty
Despite the drawdown, the stock’s quoted forward 12-month multiple remains elevated versus broader benchmarks. The shares were cited at 103.67X forward 12-months earnings versus 2.44X for the Zacks sub-industry, 2.74X for the Zacks sector, and 5.19X for the S&P 500.
Historical ranges underline how unstable valuation can be for a company at this stage. Over five years, the forward multiple range cited spans from 39.36X at the low to 3942.4X at the high, with a five-year median near 104.01X. The valuation table also shows wide swings in EV-to-sales ranges over time, reinforcing that multiples can move sharply as expectations shift.
That sensitivity is not unique to Archer. eVTOL peers like Joby Aviation, Inc. JOBY and Eve Holding, Inc. EVEX also trade on milestones and funding conditions more than near-term revenue scale. For Archer specifically, the wide dispersion in out-year Street revenue estimates for 2027 to 2028 highlights uncertainty around scaling pace and mix.
ACHR Decision Lens Based on the Report’s View
A constructive re-rating path is tied to execution proof points: finalization of remaining certification plans, initiation of Type Inspection Authorization work as soon as 2026, and visible progress through the U.S. Department of Transportation eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, including demonstration flights targeted for the second half of 2026. International progress also matters, including additional Midnight deliveries in 2026 under the UAE program and the build-out of certified vertiports across Abu Dhabi.
Valuation would likely come under pressure if the opposite occurs. Delays that defer operations, extend the elevated spending window, or increase reliance on higher-cost funding would raise the risk that multiples compress further.
Zacks Rank
ACHR currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
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